By Dr. James M. Minnich | December 17, 2024

Sri Lanka’s Landmark Supermajority

Sri Lanka’s recent parliamentary election redefined its political landscape. The National People’s Power (NPP) party secured a historic two-thirds majority under the proportional representation system, a first in the nation’s democratic history. On November 21, the new government officially took office, signaling what many hope will be a transformative era for Sri Lanka.

This critical issue was the focus of Dialogue 34, where DKI APCSS Professor Shyam Tekwani joined me to discuss the election’s extensive implications. Reflecting on this historic juncture, Professor Tekwani remarked, “The journey from Serendip to Sri Lanka through Ceylon is one of lost opportunities and wasted potential. This election, however, may represent the chance to rewrite that narrative.”

Inclusive Representation in Parliament

The NPP’s rise has brought unprecedented diversity to Sri Lanka’s parliament. Among the 175 first-time lawmakers are 21 women, 18 doctors, and representatives from marginalized communities. Particularly significant is the inclusion of lawmakers from war-affected regions in the north and east, home to Tamil and Muslim communities. Their participation raises hopes for reconciliation and addressing historical grievances, though it also introduces the challenge of uniting diverse voices within a single legislative framework.

Professor Tekwani highlighted the significance of this inclusivity: For a southern party to make electoral gains in the Tamil-dominated north is unprecedented. It symbolizes hope for a truly inclusive Sri Lanka. But representation alone is not enough. Without accountability for past atrocities, this moment could falter.

A Rejection of the Status Quo

This election reflects a decisive rejection of Sri Lanka’s entrenched political elite. Voters rallied behind Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the NPP’s charismatic leader, whose journey from humble beginnings to national prominence resonates deeply. His pragmatic vision and grassroots organizing have inspired hope for a new era of governance, economic recovery, and national unity.

Economic Challenges Ahead

Despite this optimism, Sri Lanka faces significant economic hurdles, including substantial debt, inflation, and the constraints of a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. The NPP’s supermajority offers a chance for bold reforms, yet it also raises concerns about power concentration and maintaining institutional checks and balances. Balancing economic recovery with public expectations will be a defining test of the new administration’s leadership.

Geopolitical Balancing Act

Strategically located in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka’s stability has regional and global significance. The government must skillfully navigate its relationships with India and China, balancing economic partnerships with national sovereignty. Managing key Chinese-backed investments, such as the Hambantota Port and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, will require diplomatic and economic acumen to ensure these ventures benefit Sri Lanka while safeguarding its interests.

Reconciliation through Representation

The inclusion of Tamil and Muslim lawmakers presents a rare opportunity to address long-standing grievances and promote national unity. Early steps, such as reopening roads and dismantling military checkpoints in former conflict zones, signal a commitment to reconciliation. However, as Professor Tekwani cautioned, “The scars are still fresh; the wounds are deep. Representation without addressing issues like war accountability and the fate of disappeared persons will not heal the nation. These steps must go hand in hand.”

A Model for Democratic Renewal

Strategically located in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka’s stability has regional and global significance. The government must skillfully navigate its relationships with India and China, balancing economic partnerships with national sovereignty. Managing key Chinese-backed investments, such as the Hambantota Port and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, will require diplomatic and economic acumen to ensure these ventures benefit Sri Lanka while safeguarding its interests.

A Moment of Hope and Uncertainty

Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads. The new government must navigate a labyrinth of challenges, including governance, economic recovery, and reconciliation. As Professor Tekwani aptly stated, “If Sri Lanka gets this right, it could become a leader among small states in South Asia and reclaim its place as a role model. But this will require extraordinary resolve and governance.”

Book Recommendations

For those seeking deeper insights into Sri Lanka’s history, politics, and culture, Professor Tekwani recommends:

This Divided Island: Life, Death, and the Sri Lankan War by Samanth Subramanian:
A vivid exploration of the human cost and lingering impacts of Sri Lanka’s civil war, offering compelling stories from both sides of the conflict.

Reaping the Whirlwind: Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Politics in Sri Lanka by K. M. de Silva:
A detailed account of Sri Lanka’s ethnic tensions and their political consequences provides a historical lens to understand the roots of the conflict.

Return to Sri Lanka: Travels in a Paradoxical Land by Razeen Sally:
A reflective journey through Sri Lanka, blending personal experiences with sharp insights into its cultural and political landscape.

Anil’s Ghost by Michael Ondaatje:
A powerful novel set during Sri Lanka’s civil war, intertwining personal stories with broader themes of violence, justice, and memory.

The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida by Shehan Karunatilaka:
A darkly humorous and thought-provoking tale exploring Sri Lanka’s recent history through the unique perspective of a deceased war photographer.

These works provide invaluable perspectives on Sri Lanka’s past, present, and potential futures, blending narrative depth with analytical rigor to illuminate the island’s complexities.

Watch this and other webinars on our YouTube page at: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiibCVTkZ0_NUBVWJHNud4Fzk8Y07MYah

Disclaimer:  Opinions expressed in this webinar are those of the participants and not necessarily those of DKI APCSS, DoD, or the U.S. government.