Skip to main content

Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Home

Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

  • Request new password
  • Login with PKI
Log in with CAC
Forgot Password?
  • Home
  • News
  • Events
  • Workshops
    • Enhancing Maritime Safety in the Asia-Pacific
    • Maritime Shared Awareness in SE Asia III
    • Disaster Response Regional Architecture
    • National Security Coordination in Southeast Asia
    • Building Maritime Capacity: A Quadrilateral Approach
    • Countering Violent Extremism in Southeast Asia 2
    • Integrating Private, Civil & Public Sector DR
    • COVID-19 and Beyond
    • Gray Zone Activities in Great Power Competition
    • Norms in Space: Exploring Asia-Pacific Perspectives
  • Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Securi...
  • DKI APCSS Professor Sungmin Cho Featured on the...

DKI APCSS Professor Sungmin Cho Featured on the Nordic Asia Podcast

Print Share Download PDF
0 comments

nordic-asia-podcast.jpeg

Nordic Asia Podcast
From APCSS | by Rianne Pada | 05 Apr 2022

On March 27, the Nordic Asia Podcast featured DKI APCSS professor Dr. Sungmin Cho who spoke on the multi-faceted security dilemmas that beset the Korean Peninsula.

In the thirty-minute interview, Dr. Cho forecasted future changes for South Korea’s President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s foreign policy. According to Dr. Cho, while the previous administration utilized a policy of strategic ambiguity, the incoming administration will move forward with strategic clarity. As expected, the new administration will emphasize the U.S.-South Korean Alliance. In regards to its relationship with China, the administration will seek to maintain a positive commercial relationship while avoiding retaliations related to security and politics.

Dr. Cho detailed previous economic retaliations from China in 2017 when, in response to North Korea’s military provocations, the U .S. moved its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system into South Korea. Despite China’s protests that the U.S. Defense System’s radar could detect China’s military activities, the Park Geun-hye’s administration permitted the missile system, resulting in China’s economic retaliation against South Korean companies operating in China and banning Chinese tourism to South Korea.

For Dr. Cho, South Korea faces a dilemma where it must balance its economic dependency on China with its security requirements in responding to North Korea’s military provocations. In his view, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration will need to navigate three dilemmas that shape South Korea’s position with China. First, South Korea’s economy relies heavily on the Chinese market as its top trading partner accounting for 25% of South Korea’s trade. Second, because of China’s influence over North Korea, South Korea needs China’s approval in advancing the possibility of a future unification of the Korean peninsula. Third, South Korean people’s desire to cultivate a relationship with China will need to be balanced with U.S. fears that South Korea will become a Chinese ally.

“It’s a structural problem, said Dr. Cho. “It’s not a problem of agency. Whether you are conservative or progressive [in South Korea] it doesn’t matter. Because of the structural constraints South Korea doesn’t have many options other than trying to maintain a cooperative relationship with China.

Dr.Cho predicts that, in the next year, North Korea’s provocations will likely increase, necessitating a Republic of Korea- U.S. response, and in turn, more economic retaliations from China. In January, North Korea conducted 11 missile launches, a historical record. For Dr. Cho, while the frequency of missile launches has been alarming, North Korea’s alleged development of technology that will allow long-distance missiles to evade radar puts the U.S. in a position where it must respond.

“In a nutshell, North Korea is highly likely to scale up its military provocations,” said Dr. Cho. “Unlike the Moon Jae-in government, the Yoon Suk-yeol government will match North Korea’s enhanced capabilities. I foresee there will be an escalation of tension, which may be necessary. We cannot allow North Korea to keep developing its military capabilities while we seek idle.”

If, as Dr. Cho predicts, economic retaliations from China are forthcoming, he recommends that South Korea diversify its trade partnerships and garner domestic support via a public campaign warning the South Korean people that necessary economic struggles could be coming.”

Listen to the Podcast Online: https://newbooksnetwork.com/the-security-dilemma-in-the-korean-peninsula-foreign-policy-of-yoon-seok-youl-the-incoming-president-of-south-korea

Dr. Sungmin Cho is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. The views expressed in this article are his own and do not reflect those of DKI APCSS, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Economic Security, International Organizations, International Peace and Security, Media
See all tags »

Associated Files

Related Stories

asianleadership.jpg
Defense Resources Management
Dr. Sungmin Cho Presents at the 22nd Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul, Korea
rok-taiwan
International Organizations
South Korea’s Taiwan Conundrum
See all related stories »
 

About APCSS

APCSSLink is a portal within the Department of Defense GlobalNet portal for regional security studies centers. It is made available to Alumni and workshop participants. There is an online help guide and additional help can be obtained by contacting us at: apcsslinkadmin@dkiapcss.net


About APCSSLink
Contact Us

Find us on Social Media

Footer: About GlobalNET

GlobalNET represents a network of organizations and their representative members who are working to foster national and international collaboration as well as to maintain relationships, and strengthen partner capacity.

Footer: GlobalNET Main Links

  • About GlobalNET
  • Contact GlobalNET
  • GlobalNET Partners

Footer: GlobalNET Partner

These are the GlobalNET partners

GlobalNET Support

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Help Desk
  • How to use GlobalNET
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Accessibility