CENTCOM CSAG Paper
CSAG Information Paper: The Dynamics of the Fragile State of Iraq: The Impact of Political, Economic, and Security Factors
Subject: The Dynamics of the Fragile State of Iraq: The Impact of Political, Economic, and Security Factors. Purpose: This paper presents the CSAG’s analysis of the political, economic and security dynamics in Iraq, the extent of Iranian influence within the country, and potential future...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Deterring the “Exquisite Diplomat”: Unpacking the Complexities of U.S.-Iran Deterrence Dynamics
Introduction: The effectiveness of U.S. deterrence against Iran and its allies varies across different realms of power. In the military realm, the U.S., particularly through CENTCOM, has been relatively successful in deterring Iran. However, in other realms like diplomacy and economics, it is...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Understanding the Iranian Threat Network
Introduction: The Iranian Threat Network (ITN) has emerged as a complex and multifaceted challenge in the CENTCOM Area of Operations (AOR). This strategic paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the ITN, its models, significance, and the nuanced threat perceptions it engenders...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Ceasefire Part 1 – Understanding Threat Perception
Introduction: Despite many months of pressure from the international community regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, the level of hostilities and distrust remains high. It is therefore pertinent to keep in mind both the strategic objectives of sustainable governance solutions for the Palestinian...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Afghanistan: Three Years Down the Road and Resurgence of Terrorism
Introduction: Three years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan once again becomes a haven for international terrorism is fast becoming a reality. The possibility of terrorism operating again in, and from, Afghanistan, threatening the security of the U.S. and its allies and...
CSAG Strategy Paper: High Stakes on High Ground: The Golan Heights, a Zero-sum Game for Regional Dominance
Introduction: The Golan Heights, a hilly 460 square mile (1,200 square kilometer) strategically vital plateau, was seized by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War. Despite Syria’s attempt to reclaim the territory in the 1973 conflict, Israel maintained control and unilaterally annexed it...
CSAG Information Paper: Drone combat in the RUS/UKR war and potential applications for the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR)
Subject: Drone combat in the RUS/UKR war and potential applications for the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR). Purpose: This paper presents the CSAG’s analysis regarding drone combat in the Russian-Ukrainian war and the possible consequences and effects for the CENTCOM AOR. Read the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: The Impact of China’s Expansionism on the Region and Global Security
Introduction: Many argue China has become one of the world’s superpowers. However, China appears unwilling to fully assume responsibility for issues facing the world. Simply put, China seems more concerned with furthering its own interests than addressing the problems raging outside its...
CSAG Information Paper: Key Takeaways from the 16th BRICS Summit
Subject: "Key Takeaways from the 16th BRICS Summit" Purpose: The paper presents updates, major discussions, and outcome of 16th BRICS Summit held in Kazan, Russia. Read the full paper here. Read other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) Information Papers....
CSAG Strategy Paper: Ceasefire Part 2 – Regional Escalation
Introduction: Since the U.S., together with Egypt and Qatar, started pushing for a ceasefire deal in May 2024, there have been times when a comprehensive ceasefire deal appeared close. However, as the situation in the region has evolved, it is becoming clear that objective is likely far off....
CSAG Strategy Paper: The Militia that Became a Power Player: The Houthis’ Shocking Rise
Introduction: Despite nearly a decade of war in Yemen, the world has largely ignored the Houthis, with the conflict often labeled as “the forgotten war.” However, following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis have propelled themselves onto the global stage. Seizing the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: From Impasse to Progress: A Reasonable Solution that Tackles Obstacles and Opportunities to Gaza Stability
Introduction: The Hamas-Israel conflict, is deeply rooted in historical grievances, competing national aspirations, and regional power dynamics. At its core is the “Palestinian question” – the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood, self-determination, and the rights of Palestinians living...
CSAG Information Paper: Vital, Sensitive & Strategic Cooperation Pact between Russia and Iran
Subject: "Vital, Sensitive & Strategic Cooperation Pact between Russia and Iran" Purpose: This paper presents key points and analysis of the recent signing of a Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and Iran. Read the full paper. View other USCENTCOM Combined...
CSAG Information Paper: Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa “Profile Assessment”
Subject: Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa “Profile Assessment” Purpose: The aim of this paper is to provide an initial estimate of the likely trajectory of the Syrian government based on analysis of the public pronouncements over time of Ahmed al-Sharaa, the current president of the...
CSAG Information Paper: The President’s Proposed Alternative for Gaza
Subject: “The President’s Proposed Alternative for Gaza” Purpose: This paper presents an initial analysis of possible implications for USCENTCOM given President Trump’s recent statement about taking over Gaza. Read the full paper. View other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group...
CSAG Strategy Paper: “Iran’s Shadow Army: The PMF’s Growing Influence in Iraq”
Introduction: The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is an Iraqi state security service that Iran has infiltrated and uses to exert significant influence in Iraq. Iran’s influence on the PMF enables Tehran to pursue its objectives in Iraq while obfuscating its actual involvement in Iraqi internal...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Lebanon at a Crossroads: Geopolitical Shifts, Sectarian Realignments, and the Path to Stability in the Post-Assad Era
Introduction: The collapse of the Assad regime marked a critical juncture in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, precipitating a profound transformation in the region’s strategic architecture, particularly in Lebanon. Syria has historically functioned as Lebanon’s geographic, political...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Snapback, Standoff, Strike: Iran’s Converging Timelines
Introduction: The February 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report reveals that Iran has intensified its nuclear program, openly violated prior agreements, and severely restricted IAEA monitoring. The IAEA notes that, “the significantly increased production and accumulation of high...
CSAG Information Paper: "Change in Iran's Trinity Through the Lens of the Israel-Iran Conflict," a First Analysis
Subject: "Change in Iran's Trinity Through the Lens of the Israel-Iran Conflict," a First Analysis Purpose: Reflect the CSAG’s analysis to understand the changes in Iran’s "trinity," government, military, and populace during the Israel-Iran conflict. Read the full paper. Read other...
CSAG Information Paper: The Ongoing Crisis in Southern Syria (2025): Sectarian Tensions, Political Fragmentation, and International Intervention
Subject: The Ongoing Crisis in Southern Syria (2025): Sectarian Tensions, Political Fragmentation, and International Intervention. Purpose: The paper provides CSAG’s analysis to understand the complex and rapidly evolving crisis in southern Syria mid-2025. It examines the key opposing...