CENTCOM CSAG Paper
CSAG Strategy Paper: "The Soviet-sounding New Foreign Policy of Russia"
Overview: On March 31, President Putin announced an updated concept of Russian foreign policy. The previous document has been in effect since November 30, 2016. The Russian government is adapting its foreign policy assumptions to the changed situation due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and...
CSAG Strategy Paper: “The Hardest 'Soft' Approach on the Yemeni Crisis: An Opportunity to Retake the Initiative in the Middle East”
Overview: Armed conflicts, across human history, brought unquantifiable loss of fortune, lives, and cultural diversity, effectively stalling, nullifying, or even reversing civilization progress, in countless occasions. This paper aims to clear the “fog of war” that is covering Yemen and the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "A Look into the Origins of Russian Strategic Culture"
Overview: Russia’s worldview is shaped by its strategic culture. Certain periods in history have a significant meaning in forming its strategic culture. These periods have influenced how Russians think about strong leaders, why autocracy is seen as a better option over democracy, why corruption...
CSAG Information Paper: "Pirates of the Middle East Gulfs"
Subject: Pirates of the Middle East Gulfs Purpose: This paper aims to present the CSAG’s analysis regarding how Iran is using a calculated provocative approach, to enhance their bargaining power by creating leverage during negotiations, to achieve what is in Iran’s best interest. Read the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "The Russian War's Impact on Global Order"
Overview: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged established international norms and principles. The annexation of Crimea and subsequent full invasion of Ukraine violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which are fundamental principles of international law. The conflict...
CSAG Information Paper: "Chinese-brokered Iran-KSA Détente, 'A Game-Changer or a Mirage?'”
Subject: Chinese-brokered Iran-KSA Détente, “A Game-Changer or a Mirage?” Purpose: To present CSAG’s analysis of the recent rapprochement between Iran and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) brokered by China. Introduction: The recent diplomatic agreement between Iran and KSA in March 2023 is...
CSAG Information Paper: "Deir ez-Zor: Critical Juncture in the Process Towards Syria’s Normalization"
Subject: Deir ez-Zor: Critical Juncture in the Process Towards Syria’s Normalization Purpose: To present CSAG’s analysis of the strategic significance of Deir ez-Zor in shaping the future of Syria. It reveals the growing interest of various actors operating in the region and their efforts...
CSAG Information Paper: "ISIS Strategic Communication is Derailed"
Subject: ISIS Strategic Communication is Derailed. Purpose: An analysis of whether ISIS has changed its strategic communication (SC) messaging by purposefully decreasing its presence in mass media and social media, as a strategy, or whether ISIS has just adapted its SC approach to current...
CSAG Information Paper: "Is CENTCOM Prescribing the ‘Suitable Medicine’ to Deter Iran?"
Subject: Is CENTCOM Prescribing the ‘Suitable Medicine’ to Deter Iran? Purpose: To present CSAG analysis of the recent deployment of additional US troops and assets in the Middle East (ME) to deter Iran, within the context of the current strategic and operational environment, and to draw...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Analyzing The Kashmir Conflict – Chinese Connection and Implications for the US"
Overview: The dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has resulted in decades of hostility, including three wars. The Kashmir dispute is the oldest pending dispute on the agenda of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which merits earnest world attention for a permanent solution....
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Sanctions on Russia and Economic Impact for Central Asia"
Overview: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a geopolitical challenge to the world order. The Russian attack violated not only Ukraine’s security and sovereignty, but also the rules-based international order and created a global economic, political and security crisis. Central Asian...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Lebanon: A Potential Game Changer in the CENTCOM AOR"
Overview: Years of political instability in combination with an ongoing economic crisis — exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the explosion in the Port of Beirut in August 2020 — have brought the country close to collapse. Moreover, the current institutional vacuum (with no president...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "The Hamas – Israel Conflict: Forming A Potential 'New Normal'”
Overview: The Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October has affected not only the political and security dynamics in the ME region but also the world at large. This attack being executed simultaneously in multiple domains i.e. air, land, and sea, culminating with ‘mass hostage captivity,’ can be...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Iran’s Elections, Wind of Change?"
Overview: Shaped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Iranian political landscape uniquely blends democratic and theocratic elements. The 12th parliamentary elections, the 6th Assembly of Experts elections on March 1, 2024, and the presidential elections in 2025 are playing pivotal roles in the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Yemen After the KSA-Iran Agreement: From Dreams to Harsh Reality and How This Fed Houthi Behavior in the Current Crisis"
Overview: In 2014, Houthi rebels overtook Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in a push for increased military and political power, starting Yemen’s long-lasting civil war. The chaos created by the Houthi insurgents jeopardized the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) ambition for stability in the region,...
CSAG Strategy Paper: "Panacea for Gaza"
Overview: The quest for stability in Gaza has long been a focal point of international attention, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the broader Palestinian issue. However, the traditional approach to addressing this complex challenge may be overly narrow in scope. It...
CSAG Information Paper: “Reawakening Threats: The Reemergence of Islamic State Amid Global Distractions”
Subject: "Reawakening Threats: The Reemergence of Islamic State Amid Global Distractions." Purpose: This paper examines the reemergence of Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East. IS continues its recruiting efforts, resulting in a steady trend of malign activities in the region, while the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Central Asia – Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Stability
Overview: Central Asia stands at a critical juncture, subject to influence by various global powers and regional actors. The strategic landscape is characterized by a delicate balance of interests, including those of the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union. The region’s...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Prospects and Complexities of China-Iran Relations, Implications for the U.S., and Regional & Global Repercussions
Introduction: China-Iran relations have steadily evolved and expanded in the domains of geopolitics, economics, and diplomacy since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The recent agreements and partnerships between the two countries, reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as the 25-...
CSAG Information Paper: The Israel-Hamas Conflict and its Impact on Central Asia Countries
Subject: The Israel-Hamas conflict and its impact on Central Asia countries. Purpose: This paper presents the CSAG’s analysis regarding the perceptions, consequences, and effects of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza on the Central Asian countries (CA). Read the full paper. View other...