CENTCOM CSAG Strategy Paper
CSAG Strategy Paper: Understanding the Iranian Threat Network
Introduction: The Iranian Threat Network (ITN) has emerged as a complex and multifaceted challenge in the CENTCOM Area of Operations (AOR). This strategic paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the ITN, its models, significance, and the nuanced threat perceptions it engenders...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Ceasefire Part 1 – Understanding Threat Perception
Introduction: Despite many months of pressure from the international community regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, the level of hostilities and distrust remains high. It is therefore pertinent to keep in mind both the strategic objectives of sustainable governance solutions for the Palestinian...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Afghanistan: Three Years Down the Road and Resurgence of Terrorism
Introduction: Three years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan once again becomes a haven for international terrorism is fast becoming a reality. The possibility of terrorism operating again in, and from, Afghanistan, threatening the security of the U.S. and its allies and...
CSAG Strategy Paper: High Stakes on High Ground: The Golan Heights, a Zero-sum Game for Regional Dominance
Introduction: The Golan Heights, a hilly 460 square mile (1,200 square kilometer) strategically vital plateau, was seized by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War. Despite Syria’s attempt to reclaim the territory in the 1973 conflict, Israel maintained control and unilaterally annexed it...
CSAG Strategy Paper: The Impact of China’s Expansionism on the Region and Global Security
Introduction: Many argue China has become one of the world’s superpowers. However, China appears unwilling to fully assume responsibility for issues facing the world. Simply put, China seems more concerned with furthering its own interests than addressing the problems raging outside its...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Ceasefire Part 2 – Regional Escalation
Introduction: Since the U.S., together with Egypt and Qatar, started pushing for a ceasefire deal in May 2024, there have been times when a comprehensive ceasefire deal appeared close. However, as the situation in the region has evolved, it is becoming clear that objective is likely far off....
CSAG Strategy Paper: The Militia that Became a Power Player: The Houthis’ Shocking Rise
Introduction: Despite nearly a decade of war in Yemen, the world has largely ignored the Houthis, with the conflict often labeled as “the forgotten war.” However, following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis have propelled themselves onto the global stage. Seizing the...
CSAG Strategy Paper: From Impasse to Progress: A Reasonable Solution that Tackles Obstacles and Opportunities to Gaza Stability
Introduction: The Hamas-Israel conflict, is deeply rooted in historical grievances, competing national aspirations, and regional power dynamics. At its core is the “Palestinian question” – the unresolved issue of Palestinian statehood, self-determination, and the rights of Palestinians living...
CSAG Strategy Paper: “Iran’s Shadow Army: The PMF’s Growing Influence in Iraq”
Introduction: The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is an Iraqi state security service that Iran has infiltrated and uses to exert significant influence in Iraq. Iran’s influence on the PMF enables Tehran to pursue its objectives in Iraq while obfuscating its actual involvement in Iraqi internal...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Lebanon at a Crossroads: Geopolitical Shifts, Sectarian Realignments, and the Path to Stability in the Post-Assad Era
Introduction: The collapse of the Assad regime marked a critical juncture in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, precipitating a profound transformation in the region’s strategic architecture, particularly in Lebanon. Syria has historically functioned as Lebanon’s geographic, political...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Snapback, Standoff, Strike: Iran’s Converging Timelines
Introduction: The February 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report reveals that Iran has intensified its nuclear program, openly violated prior agreements, and severely restricted IAEA monitoring. The IAEA notes that, “the significantly increased production and accumulation of high...
CSAG Strategy Paper: Ceasefire Part 3 – Where is the Exit?
Introduction: The war in Gaza is well into its second year, without significant progress toward a resolution, despite substantial efforts from mediators and the international community. Negotiations intensified toward the end of 2024, and on January 19, 2025, an initial phase of a ceasefire was...